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迈向高效计算 Dempster-Shafer 信念理论条件概率

Toward Efficient Computation of the Dempster-Shafer Belief Theoretic Conditionals.

出版信息

IEEE Trans Cybern. 2013 Apr;43(2):712-24. doi: 10.1109/TSMCB.2012.2214771. Epub 2013 Mar 7.

DOI:10.1109/TSMCB.2012.2214771
PMID:23033433
Abstract

Dempster-Shafer (DS) belief theory provides a convenient framework for the development of powerful data fusion engines by allowing for a convenient representation of a wide variety of data imperfections. The recent work on the DS theoretic (DST) conditional approach, which is based on the Fagin-Halpern (FH) DST conditionals, appears to demonstrate the suitability of DS theory for incorporating both soft (generated by human-based sensors) and hard (generated by physics-based sources) evidence into the fusion process. However, the computation of the FH conditionals imposes a significant computational burden. One reason for this is the difficulty in identifying the FH conditional core, i.e., the set of propositions receiving nonzero support after conditioning. The conditional core theorem (CCT) in this paper redresses this shortcoming by explicitly identifying the conditional focal elements with no recourse to numerical computations, thereby providing a complete characterization of the conditional core. In addition, we derive explicit results to identify those conditioning propositions that may have generated a given conditional core. This "converse" to the CCT is of significant practical value for studying the sensitivity of the updated knowledge base with respect to the evidence received. Based on the CCT, we also develop an algorithm to efficiently compute the conditional masses (generated by FH conditionals), provide bounds on its computational complexity, and employ extensive simulations to analyze its behavior.

摘要

Dempster-Shafer(DS)信念理论通过允许方便地表示各种数据缺陷,为开发强大的数据融合引擎提供了一个方便的框架。最近基于 Fagin-Halpern(FH)DS 条件的 DS 理论(DST)条件方法的工作表明,DS 理论适合将软(由基于人类的传感器生成)和硬(由基于物理的源生成)证据都纳入融合过程中。然而,FH 条件的计算会带来很大的计算负担。造成这种情况的一个原因是难以识别 FH 条件核心,即条件后接收非零支持的命题集。本文中的条件核心定理(CCT)通过明确识别条件焦点元素而无需进行数值计算来解决这一缺点,从而对条件核心进行了完整的描述。此外,我们还推导出明确的结果来识别那些可能生成给定条件核心的条件命题。CCT 的这种“反命题”对于研究更新的知识库对所收到证据的敏感性具有重要的实际价值。基于 CCT,我们还开发了一种算法来有效地计算条件质量(由 FH 条件生成),提供其计算复杂度的界,并通过广泛的模拟来分析其行为。

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