Liver Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37, Department of Gastroenterology, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Clin Transplant. 2012 Nov-Dec;26(6):E590-5. doi: 10.1111/ctr.12030. Epub 2012 Oct 22.
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potential impact of anti-HBV vaccine in the long-term (that is, decades after vaccination) number of LT.
The model simulated that the prevalence of HBV infection was 0.5% and that approximately 20% of all the liver transplantation carried out in the state of São Paulo are due to HBV infection.
The theoretical model suggests that a vaccination program that would cover 80% of the target population would reach a maximum of about 14% reduction in the LT program.
Increasing the vaccination coverage against HBV in the state of São Paulo would have a relatively low impact on the number of liver transplantation. In addition, this impact would take several decades to materialize due to the long incubation period of liver failure due to HBV.
乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）感染是全球发病率和死亡率的主要原因。慢性乙型肝炎感染与肝硬化、肝功能失代偿和肝细胞癌的风险增加有关。我们的目的是通过数学模型分析乙型肝炎疫苗在长期（即接种疫苗后几十年）内对 LT 数量的潜在影响。
该模型模拟 HBV 感染的流行率为 0.5%，并且在圣保罗州进行的所有肝移植中，约有 20%是由于 HBV 感染。
理论模型表明，覆盖目标人群 80%的疫苗接种计划最多可将 LT 计划减少约 14%。
增加圣保罗州乙型肝炎疫苗的接种覆盖率对肝移植数量的影响相对较小。此外，由于乙型肝炎引起的肝功能衰竭潜伏期较长，这种影响需要几十年的时间才能显现。
