The role of genetic structure in the adaptive divergence of populations experiencing saltwater intrusion due to relative sea-level rise.

Saltwater intrusion into estuaries creates stressful conditions for nektonic species. Previous studies have shown that Gambusia affinis populations with exposure to saline environments develop genetic adaptations for increased survival during salinity stress. Here, we evaluate the genetic structure of G. affinis populations, previously shown to have adaptations for increased salinity tolerance, and determine the impact of selection and gene flow on structure of these populations. We found that gene flow was higher between populations experiencing different salinity regimes within an estuary than between similar marsh types in different estuaries, suggesting the development of saline-tolerant phenotypes due to local adaptation. There was limited evidence of genetic structure along a salinity gradient, and only some of the genetic variation among sites was correlated with salinity. Our results suggest limited structure, combined with selection to saltwater intrusion, results in phenotypic divergence in spite of a lack of physical barriers to gene flow.