Department of Economics, Thomas Jefferson Program in Public Policy, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2012 Nov;31(11):2464-73. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0005.
During the US recession of 2007-09, overall health care spending growth fell, but Medicare spending growth increased. Using state-level data from the period 1991-2009, we show that these divergent trends were also observed within states. Furthermore, increases in state unemployment rates were associated with higher Medicare spending per capita and increased hospital use by Medicare beneficiaries. For example, a one-percentage-point point rise in the unemployment rate was associated with a $40 (0.7 percent) increase in Medicare spending per capita. Our results suggest that economic downturns contribute to Medicare spending and use. One of many possible explanations may be that health care providers have greater capacity, inclination, and financial incentive to treat Medicare patients during recessions as a result of slackening demand from the non-Medicare population.
在 2007-09 年美国经济衰退期间，整体医疗保健支出增长有所下降，但医疗保险支出增长。使用 1991-2009 年期间的州级数据，我们表明这些不同的趋势在各州内也有所观察。此外，州失业率的上升与医疗保险受益人的人均医疗保险支出增加和医院使用增加有关。例如，失业率上升一个百分点与医疗保险人均支出增加 40 美元（0.7%）有关。我们的结果表明，经济衰退导致医疗保险支出和使用增加。其中一种可能的解释是，由于非医疗保险人群的需求减少，医疗保健提供者在经济衰退期间更有能力、更倾向并有更多的经济激励来治疗医疗保险患者。
