Cheung Rex
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2012;13(9):4587-91. doi: 10.7314/apjcp.2012.13.9.4587.
This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) neuroblastoma (NB) and other peripheral nerve cell tumors (PNCT) outcome data. This study found under usage of radiotherapy in these patients.
This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for NB and other PNCT. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized jinear model to predict the outcome (soft tissue specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate the modeling errors. Risk of neuroendocrine (other endocrine including thymus as coded in SEER) death was computed for the predictors.
There were 5261 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 were included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 83.8 (97.6) months. The mean (SD) age was 18 (25) years. About 30.45% of patients were un-staged. The SEER staging has high ROC (SD) area of 0.58 (0.01) among the factors tested. We simplified the 4-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant, un-staged/others) to a simpler 3-tiered model with comparable ROC area of 0.59 (0.01). Less than 50% of PNCT patients received radiotherapy (RT) including the ones with localized disease. This avoidance of RT use occurred in adults and children.
The high under-staging rate may have prevented patients from selecting definitive radiotherapy (RT) after surgery. Using RT for, especially, adult PNCT patients is a potential way to improve outcome.
本研究使用接受者操作特征曲线分析监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中的神经母细胞瘤(NB)及其他周围神经细胞瘤(PNCT)的预后数据。本研究发现了这些患者中放射治疗的使用情况。
本研究分析了SEER数据库中NB和其他PNCT的社会经济、分期及治疗因素。对于风险建模,每个因素都通过广义线性模型进行拟合,以预测预后(软组织特异性死亡,是/否)。计算接受者操作特征曲线(ROC)下的面积。将相似的分层合并以构建最简约的模型。使用随机抽样算法估计建模误差。计算预测因子的神经内分泌(其他内分泌,包括SEER中编码的胸腺)死亡风险。
本研究纳入了1973年至2009年诊断的5261例患者。平均随访时间(标准差)为83.8(97.6)个月。平均(标准差)年龄为18(25)岁。约30.45%的患者未分期。在测试的因素中,SEER分期的ROC(标准差)面积较高,为0.58(0.01)。我们将4层风险水平(局部、区域、远处、未分期/其他)简化为一个更简单的3层模型,其ROC面积相当,为0.59(0.01)。不到50%的PNCT患者接受了放射治疗(RT),包括局部疾病患者。成人和儿童均存在这种避免使用RT的情况。
高未分期率可能使患者术后无法选择确定性放射治疗(RT)。特别是对成人PNCT患者使用RT是改善预后的一种潜在方法。