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胰管内乳头状黏液性肿瘤患者非胰腺癌相关死亡风险。

Risk for mortality from causes other than pancreatic cancer in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas.

机构信息

Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

出版信息

Pancreas. 2013 May;42(4):687-91. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0b013e318270ea97.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The long-term prognosis in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) has not been determined. The aim of this study was to elucidate the risk for nonpancreatic cancer-specific mortality in patients with IPMN.

METHODS

Seven hundred ninety-three patients with IPMN who were followed up more than 1 year were included in this study. Fine and Gray competing risk regression was used to assess the risk for mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer. A comorbidity score at diagnosis was assigned using the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 50 months, a high comorbidity score and age at diagnosis were significantly associated with a risk for mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer. Adjusted hazards ratio and 95% confidence interval of each comorbidity burden were as follows: none, 1; mild, 2.68 (0.76-9.45; P = 0.124); moderate, 10.9 (3.19-37.1; P < 0.001); and severe, 32.0 (9.41-108.8; P < 0.001). Comorbidity burden did not affect the risk for pancreatic cancer-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbidity and age at diagnosis was significantly related to mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer in patients with IPMN. For patients at high risk for nonpancreatic cancer mortality, a follow-up management may be more reasonable than surgery.

摘要

目的

目前尚未明确导管内乳头状黏液性肿瘤(IPMN)患者的长期预后。本研究旨在阐明 IPMN 患者发生非胰腺癌特异性死亡的风险。

方法

本研究纳入了 793 例随访时间超过 1 年的 IPMN 患者。采用 Fine 和 Gray 竞争风险回归分析评估与胰腺癌无关的死亡率风险。采用成人合并症评估 27 项(Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27)为每位患者在诊断时分配合并症评分。

结果

在中位随访 50 个月后,高合并症评分和诊断时年龄与与胰腺癌无关的死亡率风险显著相关。每个合并症负担的调整后危险比(hazard ratio,HR)和 95%置信区间(confidence interval,CI)如下:无,1;轻度,2.68(0.76-9.45;P = 0.124);中度,10.9(3.19-37.1;P < 0.001);重度,32.0(9.41-108.8;P < 0.001)。合并症负担并不影响胰腺癌特异性死亡率风险。

结论

在 IPMN 患者中,合并症和诊断时年龄与与胰腺癌无关的死亡率显著相关。对于具有较高非胰腺癌死亡风险的患者,随访管理可能比手术更为合理。

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