Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Pancreas. 2013 May;42(4):687-91. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0b013e318270ea97.
The long-term prognosis in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) has not been determined. The aim of this study was to elucidate the risk for nonpancreatic cancer-specific mortality in patients with IPMN.
Seven hundred ninety-three patients with IPMN who were followed up more than 1 year were included in this study. Fine and Gray competing risk regression was used to assess the risk for mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer. A comorbidity score at diagnosis was assigned using the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27.
After a median follow-up of 50 months, a high comorbidity score and age at diagnosis were significantly associated with a risk for mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer. Adjusted hazards ratio and 95% confidence interval of each comorbidity burden were as follows: none, 1; mild, 2.68 (0.76-9.45; P = 0.124); moderate, 10.9 (3.19-37.1; P < 0.001); and severe, 32.0 (9.41-108.8; P < 0.001). Comorbidity burden did not affect the risk for pancreatic cancer-specific mortality.
Comorbidity and age at diagnosis was significantly related to mortality unrelated to pancreatic cancer in patients with IPMN. For patients at high risk for nonpancreatic cancer mortality, a follow-up management may be more reasonable than surgery.
目前尚未明确导管内乳头状黏液性肿瘤(IPMN)患者的长期预后。本研究旨在阐明 IPMN 患者发生非胰腺癌特异性死亡的风险。
本研究纳入了 793 例随访时间超过 1 年的 IPMN 患者。采用 Fine 和 Gray 竞争风险回归分析评估与胰腺癌无关的死亡率风险。采用成人合并症评估 27 项(Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27)为每位患者在诊断时分配合并症评分。
在中位随访 50 个月后,高合并症评分和诊断时年龄与与胰腺癌无关的死亡率风险显著相关。每个合并症负担的调整后危险比(hazard ratio,HR)和 95%置信区间(confidence interval,CI)如下:无,1;轻度,2.68(0.76-9.45;P = 0.124);中度,10.9(3.19-37.1;P < 0.001);重度,32.0(9.41-108.8;P < 0.001)。合并症负担并不影响胰腺癌特异性死亡率风险。
在 IPMN 患者中,合并症和诊断时年龄与与胰腺癌无关的死亡率显著相关。对于具有较高非胰腺癌死亡风险的患者,随访管理可能比手术更为合理。