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印度喜马拉雅地区的冰川湖——从一个大范围的冰川湖清单到基于现场和建模的关键冰川湖风险评估。

Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas--from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modeling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes.

机构信息

Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, route de Drize 7, CH-1227 Carouge, Switzerland; Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1+3, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.

Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, route de Drize 7, CH-1227 Carouge, Switzerland; Department of Geography, University of Zurich-Irchel, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2013 Dec 1;468-469 Suppl:S71-84. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.11.043. Epub 2012 Dec 4.

Abstract

Glacial lake hazards and glacial lake distributions are investigated in many glaciated regions of the world, but comparably little attention has been given to these topics in the Indian Himalayas. In this study we present a first area-wide glacial lake inventory, including a qualitative classification at 251 glacial lakes >0.01 km(2). Lakes were detected in the five states spanning the Indian Himalayas, and lake distribution pattern and lake characteristics were found to differ significantly between regions. Three glacial lakes, from different geographic and climatic regions within the Indian Himalayas were then selected for a detailed risk assessment. Lake outburst probability, potential outburst magnitudes and associated damage were evaluated on the basis of high-resolution satellite imagery, field assessments and through the use of a dynamic model. The glacial lakes analyzed in the states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were found to present moderate risks to downstream villages, whereas the lake in Sikkim severely threatens downstream locations. At the study site in Sikkim, a dam breach could trigger drainage of ca. 16×10(6)m(3) water and generate maximum lake discharge of nearly 7000 m(3) s(-). The identification of critical glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas and the detailed risk assessments at three specific sites allow prioritizing further investigations and help in the definition of risk reduction actions.

摘要

冰川湖危害和冰川湖分布在世界上许多冰川作用的地区都得到了研究,但在印度喜马拉雅山地区,这些主题的关注相对较少。在这项研究中,我们首次提供了一个全面的冰川湖清单,包括对 251 个大于 0.01 平方公里的冰川湖进行定性分类。在跨越印度喜马拉雅山的五个邦中检测到了湖泊,并且发现湖泊分布模式和湖泊特征在不同地区有很大的差异。然后,从印度喜马拉雅山的不同地理和气候区域选择了三个冰川湖进行详细的风险评估。根据高分辨率卫星图像、实地评估和使用动态模型,评估了湖泊溃决概率、潜在溃决规模以及相关的破坏。在查谟和克什米尔邦和喜马偕尔邦的湖泊被发现对下游村庄构成中等风险,而在锡金邦的湖泊则严重威胁下游地区。在锡金的研究地点,大坝决堤可能引发约 16×10(6)m(3)的水的排放,并产生近 7000 m(3) s(-)的最大湖泊流量。对印度喜马拉雅山地区关键冰川湖的识别以及对三个特定地点的详细风险评估,可以对进一步的调查进行优先排序,并有助于确定减少风险的措施。

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