Role of insulin resistance indices in predicting new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation.

New-onset diabetes mellitus (NODAT) is a serious complication following renal transplantation. In this cohort study, we studied 118 nondiabetic renal transplant recipients to examine whether indices of insulin resistance and secretion calculated before transplantation and at 3 months post-transplantation are associated with the development of NODAT within 1 year. We also analysed the long-term impact of early diagnosed NODAT. Insulin indices were calculated using homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) and McAuley's Index. NODAT was diagnosed using fasting plasma glucose. Median follow-up was 11 years. The cumulative incidence of NODAT at 1 year was 37%. By logistic regression, recipient age (per year) was the only significant pretransplant predictor of NODAT (OR 1.04, CI 1.009-1.072), while age (OR 1.04, CI 1.005-1.084) and impaired fasting glucose (OR 2.97, CI 1.009-8.733) were significant predictors at 3 months. Pretransplant and 3-month insulin resistance and secretion indices did not predict NODAT. All-cause mortality was significantly higher in recipients developing NODAT within 1 year compared with those remaining nondiabetic (44% vs. 22%, log-rank P = 0.008). By Cox's regression analysis, age (HR 1.075, CI 1.042-1.110), 1-year creatinine (HR 1.007, CI 1.004-1.010) and NODAT within 3 months (HR 2.4, CI 1.2-4.9) were independent predictors of death. In conclusion, NODAT developing early after renal transplantation was associated with poor long-term patient survival. Insulin indices calculated pretransplantation using HOMA and McAuley's Index did not predict NODAT.