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历史终结论的幻象。

The end of history illusion.

机构信息

National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium.

出版信息

Science. 2013 Jan 4;339(6115):96-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1229294.

Abstract

We measured the personalities, values, and preferences of more than 19,000 people who ranged in age from 18 to 68 and asked them to report how much they had changed in the past decade and/or to predict how much they would change in the next decade. Young people, middle-aged people, and older people all believed they had changed a lot in the past but would change relatively little in the future. People, it seems, regard the present as a watershed moment at which they have finally become the person they will be for the rest of their lives. This "end of history illusion" had practical consequences, leading people to overpay for future opportunities to indulge their current preferences.

摘要

我们测量了 19000 多名年龄在 18 岁至 68 岁之间的人的个性、价值观和偏好,并要求他们报告过去十年中自己的变化程度,以及预测未来十年中自己的变化程度。年轻人、中年人以及老年人都认为自己在过去已经发生了很大的变化,但在未来变化相对较小。人们似乎认为现在是一个分水岭,在这个时刻,他们终于成为了未来余生的那个人。这种“历史终结的幻觉”产生了实际的后果,导致人们为未来满足当前偏好的机会支付过高的价格。

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