School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, 471023, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2012 Oct;9(4):785-807. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2012.9.785.
A tuberculosis (TB) transmission model involving migrant workers is proposed and investigated. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated, and is shown to be a threshold parameter for the disease to persist or become extinct in the population. The existence and global attractivity of an endemic equilibrium, if R0 > 1, is also established under some technical conditions. A case study, based on the TB epidemiological and other statistical data in China, indicates that the disease spread can be controlled if effective measures are taken to reduce the reactivation rate of exposed/latent migrant workers. Impact of the migration rate and direction, as well as the duration of home visit stay, on the control of disease spread is also examined numerically.
提出并研究了一个涉及农民工的结核病（TB）传播模型。计算了基本再生数 R0，并表明它是疾病在人群中持续存在或灭绝的阈值参数。在一些技术条件下，还建立了在 R0 > 1 时地方病平衡点的存在性和全局吸引性。基于中国结核病流行病学和其他统计数据的案例研究表明，如果采取有效措施降低暴露/潜伏农民工的复发率，就可以控制疾病的传播。还通过数值方法研究了迁移率和迁移方向以及探亲逗留时间对疾病传播控制的影响。
