Wienecke A, Knorpp L, Stegmüller K, Kroke A
Hochschule Fulda, Fulda, Germany.
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2013 Mar;56(3):439-46. doi: 10.1007/s00103-012-1625-x.
Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the risk factors alcohol intake and overweight in the German population were calculated to estimate the preventability of colorectal and breast cancer attributable to these risk factors. Estimates were based on national alcohol consumption and overweight prevalence data in the German population. Comparative analyses were used to evaluate the variation of PAF estimates according to changes in the calculation parameters. PAFs quantify the preventive potential that could result from removing or reducing the risk factor exposure, respectively. Postmenopausal breast cancer was estimated to be preventable by 13-23% if the population were normal weight. Among German men, 10-25% of colon cancers were attributable to alcohol consumption and 7-13% of colorectal cancers to overweight. The comparative analyses demonstrated that preventability estimates vary considerably with the chosen data (risk estimates, reference categories) for PAF calculation and can differ by up to 50%. Thus, data selection should be evidence based, for example, based on meta-analyses, in order to increase the validity of preventability estimates.
计算了德国人群中酒精摄入和超重等风险因素的人群归因分数（PAF），以估计这些风险因素导致的结直肠癌和乳腺癌的可预防性。估计值基于德国人群的全国酒精消费和超重患病率数据。采用比较分析来评估根据计算参数变化得出的PAF估计值的变化情况。PAF分别量化了消除或减少风险因素暴露可能带来的预防潜力。如果人群体重正常，估计绝经后乳腺癌有13%-23%是可预防的。在德国男性中，10%-25%的结肠癌归因于酒精消费，7%-13%的结直肠癌归因于超重。比较分析表明，可预防性估计值会因PAF计算所选用的数据（风险估计值、参考类别）而有很大差异，差异幅度可达50%。因此，数据选择应以证据为基础，例如基于荟萃分析，以提高可预防性估计值的有效性。
