Pandeya Nirmala, Wilson Louise F, Webb Penelope M, Neale Rachel E, Bain Christopher J, Whiteman David C
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2015 Oct;39(5):408-13. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12456.
To estimate the proportion and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to alcohol consumption.
We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers causally associated with alcohol consumption using standard formulae incorporating prevalence of alcohol consumption and relative risks associated with consumption and cancer. We also estimated the proportion change in cancer incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that might have occurred under the hypothetical scenario that an intervention reduced alcohol consumption, so that no-one drank >2 drinks/day.
An estimated 3,208 cancers (2.8% of all cancers) occurring in Australian adults in 2010 could be attributed to alcohol consumption. The greatest numbers were for cancers of the colon (868) and female breast cancer (830). The highest PAFs were for squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity/pharynx (31%) and oesophagus (25%). The incidence of alcohol-associated cancer types could have been reduced by 1,442 cases (4.3%)--from 33,537 to 32,083--if no Australian adult consumed >2 drinks/day.
More than 3,000 cancers were attributable to alcohol consumption and thus were potentially preventable.
Strategies that limit alcohol consumption to guideline levels could prevent a large number of cancers in Australian adults.
估算2010年澳大利亚因饮酒导致的癌症比例及数量。
我们使用标准公式估算与饮酒有因果关系的癌症的人群归因分数（PAF），该公式纳入了饮酒率以及饮酒与癌症相关的相对风险。我们还估算了在假设干预措施降低饮酒量以至于无人每天饮酒超过两杯的情况下，癌症发病率可能发生的比例变化（潜在影响分数 [PIF]）。
估计2010年澳大利亚成年人中3208例癌症（占所有癌症的2.8%）可归因于饮酒。数量最多的是结肠癌（868例）和女性乳腺癌（830例）。PAF最高的是口腔/咽鳞状细胞癌（31%）和食管癌（25%）。如果没有澳大利亚成年人每天饮酒超过两杯，与酒精相关的癌症类型的发病率本可减少1442例（4.3%），即从33537例降至32083例。
超过3000例癌症可归因于饮酒，因此有可能预防。
将饮酒量限制在指南水平的策略可预防澳大利亚成年人中的大量癌症。
