Toward correct protein folding potentials.

Empirical protein folding potentialfunctions should have a global minimum nearthe native conformationof globular proteins that fold stably, andthey should give the correct free energy offolding. We demonstrate that otherwise verysuccessful potentials fail to have even alocal minimumanywhere near the native conformation, anda seemingly well validated method ofestimatingthe thermodynamic stability of the nativestate is extremely sensitive to smallperturbations inatomic coordinates. These are bothindicative of fitting a great deal ofirrelevant detail. Here weshow how to devise a robust potentialfunction that succeeds very well at bothtasks, at least for alimited set of proteins, and this involvesdeveloping a novel representation of thedenatured state.Predicted free energies of unfolding for 25mutants of barnase are in close agreementwith theexperimental values, while for 17 mutantsthere are substantial discrepancies.