The Satellite Positioning for Atmosphere, Climate and Environment SPACE Research Centre, School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Pest Manag Sci. 2013 Aug;69(8):955-63. doi: 10.1002/ps.3459. Epub 2013 Jan 28.
The eradicability of rain-splashed crop diseases was examined by modelling the spread of lupin anthracnose over a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Two hypotheses were investigated: (i) in most cases, rain-splashed diseases are unlikely to be eradicable because spread will be too extensive by the time the disease is detected; (ii) there are recognisable characteristics of an incursion that can be used to identify cases when the disease will be eradicable.
Results indicate that the eradication of a rain-splashed crop disease is heavily dependent on the surveillance effort, on how detectable the disease is and on whether there are susceptible hosts outside the cropping area. These simple indicators can be used to estimate the potential for success of an eradication scheme. Eradication targeting only the crop area is destined to fail, unless it is certain that no susceptible host lies adjacent to the cropping area.
A failed eradication attempt can be costly, and a simple set of indicators for the likelihood of success is extremely useful. These indicators can aid decision-makers when faced with a new incursion, identifying when there is little hope of success. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.
通过模拟羽扇豆炭疽病在空间异质景观中的传播，研究了可消除降雨溅起作物病害的可能性。研究了两个假设：（i）在大多数情况下，由于在检测到病害时，病害的传播已经过于广泛，因此，降雨溅起的病害不太可能被消除；（ii）有可识别的疾病入侵特征，可以用于确定在某些情况下，病害是可以消除的。
结果表明，消除降雨溅起的作物病害在很大程度上取决于监测力度、病害的可检测性以及是否在作物种植区之外存在易感宿主。这些简单的指标可用于估计消除计划的成功潜力。如果不能确定在作物种植区附近没有易感宿主，那么仅针对作物种植区的消除计划注定会失败。
消除失败可能代价高昂，一套简单的成功可能性指标非常有用。当决策者面临新的入侵时，这些指标可以帮助他们确定成功的可能性，从而及时做出决策。© 2012 英国化学工业学会。
