Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 101 Haviland Hall, MC7538, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Feb 15;177(4):361-70. doi: 10.1093/aje/kws281. Epub 2013 Jan 29.
Many community-based studies of acute child illness rely on cases reported by caregivers. In prior investigations, researchers noted a reporting bias when longer illness recall periods were used. The use of recall periods longer than 2-3 days has been discouraged to minimize this reporting bias. In the present study, we sought to determine the optimal recall period for illness measurement when accounting for both bias and variance. Using data from 12,191 children less than 24 months of age collected in 2008-2009 from Himachal Pradesh in India, Madhya Pradesh in India, Indonesia, Peru, and Senegal, we calculated bias, variance, and mean squared error for estimates of the prevalence ratio between groups defined by anemia, stunting, and underweight status to identify optimal recall periods for caregiver-reported diarrhea, cough, and fever. There was little bias in the prevalence ratio when a 7-day recall period was used (<10% in 35 of 45 scenarios), and the mean squared error was usually minimized with recall periods of 6 or more days. Shortening the recall period from 7 days to 2 days required sample-size increases of 52%-92% for diarrhea, 47%-61% for cough, and 102%-206% for fever. In contrast to the current practice of using 2-day recall periods, this work suggests that studies should measure caregiver-reported illness with a 7-day recall period.
许多基于社区的儿童急性疾病研究依赖于照顾者报告的病例。在先前的调查中,研究人员注意到在使用较长的疾病回忆期时存在报告偏差。为了最小化这种报告偏差,不鼓励使用超过 2-3 天的回忆期。在本研究中,我们试图确定在考虑偏差和方差的情况下测量疾病的最佳回忆期。使用 2008-2009 年在印度喜马偕尔邦、印度中央邦、印度尼西亚、秘鲁和塞内加尔收集的 12191 名小于 24 个月的儿童的数据,我们计算了两组之间贫血、发育迟缓、消瘦状态定义的患病率比的偏差、方差和均方误差,以确定最佳回忆期照顾者报告的腹泻、咳嗽和发热。当使用 7 天的回忆期时,患病率比的偏差很小(在 45 种情况中的 35 种中小于 10%),并且通常使用 6 天或更长时间的回忆期可以最小化均方误差。将回忆期从 7 天缩短至 2 天,腹泻的样本量需要增加 52%-92%,咳嗽的样本量需要增加 47%-61%,发热的样本量需要增加 102%-206%。与当前使用 2 天回忆期的做法相反,这项工作表明,研究应该使用 7 天回忆期来测量照顾者报告的疾病。