Fulks Michael, Stout Robert L, Dolan Vera F
Clinical Reference Laboratory, Ukiah, CA, USA.
J Insur Med. 2012;43(3):169-77.
Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements.
Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex.
The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age.
Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.
评估一个涵盖人寿保险申请人所有实验室检测结果以及血压和体型测量数据的评分系统对中长期死亡率预测的程度。
利用报告了社会保险号的人寿保险申请人的检测结果，并结合社会保险死亡主文件，按年龄和性别确定与每个检测结果相关的死亡率。将每个检测的个体死亡率得分合并到每个个体上，得出一个综合死亡率风险评分。然后针对保险申请人数据集对该评分进行测试，以评估其区分不同年龄和性别的风险的能力。
综合风险评分以线性方式高度预测全因死亡率风险，从最佳到最差五分位数，在每个性别和年龄十年中几乎以相同方式呈现。
人寿保险申请人的实验室检测、血压和体型数据可用于创建预测不同年龄和性别的全因死亡率的评分。这种方法在预防性健康筛查方面也可能具有前景。
