Laubacher Arja, Rossegger Astrid, Endrass Jérôme, Angst Jules, Urbaniok Frank, Vetter Stefan
Counseling and Therapy Practice, Zurich, Switzerland.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2014 May;58(5):537-49. doi: 10.1177/0306624X13479935. Epub 2013 Mar 12.
Studies on adult sex and violent offenders have found high rates of adolescent delinquency, while early delinquency has been shown to be significantly associated with adult offending. The examined subsample (n = 123) of a longitudinal prospective study (n = 6,315) includes all men who at the age of 19 had an entry in the criminal records. During the observation period of 34 years, 68.3% of the sample had been reconvicted as adults, 23.6% for violent or sex offenses. The odds of adult sex or violent offending were 2.8 times higher for those who had committed a violent offense in adolescence and 1.05 times higher for any offense committed before the age of 19. The characteristics of criminal history showed the highest discriminative values (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.61-0.65). The most important finding of this study was that characteristics of adolescent delinquency predicted adult violent or sex offending, whereas socioeconomic and psychiatric characteristics did not.
对成年性犯罪者和暴力犯罪者的研究发现，青少年犯罪率很高，而早期犯罪已被证明与成年犯罪显著相关。一项纵向前瞻性研究（n = 6315）中的受试子样本（n = 123）包括所有19岁时在犯罪记录中有记载的男性。在34年的观察期内，68.3%的样本成年后再次被定罪，23.6%因暴力或性犯罪被定罪。在青少年时期犯过暴力罪的人成年后实施性犯罪或暴力犯罪的几率高出2.8倍，19岁之前犯过任何罪行的人高出1.05倍。犯罪历史特征显示出最高的判别价值（曲线下面积[AUC] = 0.61 - 0.65）。这项研究最重要的发现是，青少年犯罪特征可预测成年后的暴力或性犯罪，而社会经济和精神特征则不能。
