Zhou Yang, Li Ning, Dong Guanpeng, Wu Wenxiang
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100875, China.
J Sci Food Agric. 2013 Aug 30;93(11):2698-706. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.6087. Epub 2013 Mar 15.
Investigating the degree to which climate change may have impacted on rice yields can provide an insight into how to adapt to climate change in the future. Meteorological and rice yield data over the period 1960-2009 from the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China (HRANC) were used to explore the possible impacts of climate change on rice yields at sub-regional scale.
Results showed that a warming trend was obvious in the HRANC and discernible climate fluctuations and yield variations on inter-annual scale were detected to have occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Statistically positive correlation was observed between growing season temperature and rice yields, with an increase rate by approximately 3.60% for each 1°C rise in the minimum temperature during growing season. Such findings are consistent with the current mainstream view that warming climate may exert positive impacts on crop yields in the middle and higher latitude regions.
Our study indicated that the growing season minimum temperature was a major driver of all the climatic factors to the recent increase trends in rice yield in HRANC over the last five decades.
研究气候变化对水稻产量的影响程度，有助于洞察未来如何适应气候变化。利用中国东北黑龙江垦区（HRANC）1960 - 2009年的气象和水稻产量数据，探讨气候变化在次区域尺度上对水稻产量的可能影响。
结果表明，HRANC地区变暖趋势明显，且在20世纪80年代和90年代分别检测到明显的气候波动和年际尺度上的产量变化。生长季温度与水稻产量之间存在统计学上的正相关，生长季最低温度每升高1°C，产量增加率约为3.60%。这些发现与当前主流观点一致，即气候变暖可能对中高纬度地区的作物产量产生积极影响。
我们的研究表明，在过去五十年中，生长季最低温度是导致HRANC地区水稻产量近期增加趋势的所有气候因素中的主要驱动因素。
