Vallbracht C, Klepzig H, Hoin H, Kaltenbach M, Kober G
Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe-Universität, Abteilung für Kardiologie, Frankfurt am Main.
Z Kardiol. 1990 Mar;79(3):161-5.
Data from a retrospective study defining seven parameters of increased risk of restenosis after successful transluminal coronary angioplasty (high-grade stenoses, long stenoses, eccentric stenoses, use of high pressure, extended time of balloon inflation, stenoses in obese patients, stenoses in patients without a history of smoking) were fed into a computer. A discriminant analysis was made and an algorithm for prediction of restenosis was defined. The validity of prediction was prospectively tested in 101 patients. In 80/101 (79.2%) prediction was possible; in 21/101 (20.8%) it was not possible. In 15/80 patients (18.8%) the prediction was: "restenosis probable"; in 65/80 patients (81.2%): "restenosis not probable". After 4.4 months 93/101 patients (92.1%) had an angiographic follow-up. The prediction "restenosis" proved to be correct in 13/15 patients (86.7%), and the prediction "no restenosis" was correct in 56/65 patients (86.2%). It is concluded that in the majority of patients the risk of restenosis can be predicted immediately after the intervention.
一项回顾性研究的数据被输入计算机，该研究确定了成功的经皮冠状动脉腔内血管成形术后再狭窄风险增加的七个参数（高度狭窄、长段狭窄、偏心狭窄、使用高压、球囊扩张时间延长、肥胖患者的狭窄、无吸烟史患者的狭窄）。进行了判别分析并定义了再狭窄预测算法。在101例患者中对预测的有效性进行了前瞻性测试。在80/101（79.2%）的患者中可以进行预测；在21/101（20.8%）的患者中无法进行预测。在15/80例患者（18.8%）中预测结果为：“可能发生再狭窄”；在65/80例患者（81.2%）中预测结果为：“不太可能发生再狭窄”。4.4个月后，93/101例患者（92.1%）接受了血管造影随访。“再狭窄”的预测在13/15例患者（86.7%）中被证明是正确的，“无再狭窄”的预测在56/65例患者（86.2%）中是正确的。得出的结论是，在大多数患者中，干预后可立即预测再狭窄风险。
