Waldman H Barry, Cannella Dolores, Perlman Steven P
Department of General Dentistry at Stony Brook University, NY, USA.
Pa Dent J (Harrisb). 2013 Jan-Feb;80(1):31-6.
Media reports describing the anticipated increase of tens of millions of elderly residents and their attendant billions of dollar costs for health services during the next decades are difficult for any person to place in proper perspective. As a result, these estimates become "just numbers" not actual people. Census Bureau reports are used at the national, state and county levels to provide an increased meaningful picture when the 65 and older population of Pennsylvania will increase to 22.6 percent of the state population. In 2000, 12.4 percent of the U.S. population was 65 years and older (15.6 percent in Pennsylvania, 1.9 million elderly). Only in the state of Florida was the proportion greater. In 2010, the proportion of elderly in the population of Pennsylvania ranked 4th (behind Florida, West Virginia and Maine). It was tied for 3rd (behind Florida and North Dakota) with 2.5 percent of the population 85 years and over. By 2030, the projected number of elderly in Pennsylvania (22.6 percent of the state population) will rank 11th. But ... "Starting on Jan 1, (2011) our 79-million-strong baby boomer generation will be turning 65 at the rate of one elderly every eight seconds.
媒体报道称，预计在未来几十年里，老年居民数量将增加数千万，随之而来的医疗服务成本将高达数十亿美元。对于任何人来说，都很难正确看待这些报道。结果，这些预估数字变成了“仅仅是数字”，而不是真实的人。人口普查局的报告在国家、州和县级层面被用来提供更有意义的情况，比如宾夕法尼亚州65岁及以上人口将增加到该州人口的22.6%。2000年，美国12.4%的人口年龄在65岁及以上（宾夕法尼亚州为15.6%，即190万老年人）。只有佛罗里达州的这一比例更高。2010年，宾夕法尼亚州老年人口在总人口中的比例排名第四（仅次于佛罗里达州、西弗吉尼亚州和缅因州）。该州85岁及以上人口占总人口的2.5%，与北达科他州并列第三（仅次于佛罗里达州）。到2030年，预计宾夕法尼亚州的老年人口数量（占该州人口的22.6%）将排名第11。但是……“从2011年1月1日开始，我们庞大的7900万婴儿潮一代将以每八秒就有一人年满65岁的速度步入老年。
