Population dynamics of Trichostrongylus colubriformis in sheep: mathematical model of worm fecundity.

A mathematical model was constructed to predict the egg production of Trichostrongylus colubriformis worms as a function of worm age and host experience of infection. The model set egg production at zero until the worm was 14 days old, when a linear increase to maximum egg production levels occurred over 7 days. It was assumed that egg production remained at maximum levels until a threshold total worm burden was exceeded, when an exponential decline in egg production occurred. The rate of decline was assumed independent of worm age or worm burden. The estimated parameters (maximum egg production, threshold, lag and rate of decline) were optimized by fitting values predicted from the model to faecal egg counts observed in continuously infected sheep, giving R2 = 0.80. The model was validated against faecal egg counts obtained in two other continuous infection experiments, one performed at the same laboratory and the other in Britain.