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概率的主观解释与法医学中的个体化问题。

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science.

作者信息

Biedermann Alex, Garbolino Paolo, Taroni Franco

机构信息

University of Lausanne, School of Criminal Justice, Lausanne, Switzerland.

出版信息

Sci Justice. 2013 Jun;53(2):192-200. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2013.01.003. Epub 2013 Jan 30.

Abstract

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

摘要

本文介绍并讨论了概率主观主义解释(也称为概率的“个人主义”观点)的更多方面,该解释始于早期的法医和法律文献。文章表明,用于引出主观概率的操作手段——特别是所谓的评分规则——为以下立场提供了更多论据支持:根据概率论的那种观点进行形式分析,无法得出法医个体识别的绝对论断。

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