Priority setting for invasive species management: risk assessment of Ponto-Caspian invasive species into Great Britain.

Invasive species drive important ecological and economic losses across wide geographies, with some regions supporting especially large numbers of nonnative species and consequently suffering relatively high impacts. For this reason, integrated risk assessments able to screen a suite of multiple invaders over large geographic areas are needed for prioritizing the allocation of limited resources. A total of 16 Ponto-Caspian aquatic species (10 gammarids, one isopod, two mysids, and three fishes) have been short-listed as recent or potential future invaders of British waters, whose introduction and spread is of high concern. In this study, we use multiple modeling techniques to assess their risk of establishment and spread into Great Britain. Climate suitability maps for these 16 species differed depending on the eastern and western distribution of species in continental Europe, which was related to their respective migration corridor: southern (Danube-Rhine rivers), and northern (Don and Volga rivers and Baltic lakes). Species whose suitability was high across large parts of Great Britain included four gammarids (Cheliorophium robustum, Dikerogammarus bispinosus, D. villosus, and Echinogammarus trichiatus) and a mysid (Hemimysis anomala). A climatic "heat map" combining the results of all 16 species together pointed to the southeast of England as the area most vulnerable to multiple invasions, particularly the Thames, Anglian, Severn, and Humber river basin districts. Regression models further suggested that alkalinity concentration > 120 mg/L in southeast England may favor the establishment of Ponto-Caspian invaders. The production of integrated risk maps for future invaders provides a means for the scientifically informed prioritization of resources toward particular species and geographic regions. Such tools have great utility in helping environmental managers focus efforts on the most effective prevention, management, and monitoring programs.