Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
J Eval Clin Pract. 2013 Jun;19(3):463-6. doi: 10.1111/jep.12040.
Probability claims are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, yet exactly how clinical events relate to interpretations of probability has been not been well explored. This brief essay examines the major interpretations of probability and how these interpretations may account for the probabilistic nature of clinical events. It is argued that there are significant problems with the unquestioned application of interpretation of probability to clinical events. The essay concludes by suggesting other avenues to understand uncertainty in clinical medicine.
概率主张在临床医学中无处不在，但临床事件与概率解释之间的关系尚未得到很好的探讨。本文简要探讨了概率的主要解释，以及这些解释如何解释临床事件的概率性质。本文认为，将概率解释不加质疑地应用于临床事件存在严重问题。本文最后提出了理解临床医学中不确定性的其他途径。
