Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno, 1664 N. Virginia St., Reno, NV 89557, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2013 Sep 15;126:157-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.044. Epub 2013 May 28.
In this article we develop a simulation model to evaluate the economic efficiency of fuel treatments and apply it to two sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin of the western United States: the Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe and Mountain Big Sagebrush ecosystems. These ecosystems face the two most prominent concerns in sagebrush ecosystems relative to wildfire: annual grass invasion and native conifer expansion. Our model simulates long-run wildfire suppression costs with and without fuel treatments explicitly incorporating ecological dynamics, stochastic wildfire, uncertain fuel treatment success, and ecological thresholds. Our results indicate that, on the basis of wildfire suppression costs savings, fuel treatment is economically efficient only when the two ecosystems are in relatively good ecological health. We also investigate how shorter wildfire-return intervals, improved treatment success rates, and uncertainty about the location of thresholds between ecological states influence the economic efficiency of fuel treatments.
本文开发了一个模拟模型来评估燃料处理的经济效益，并将其应用于美国西部大盆地的两个山艾树生态系统：怀俄明州山艾草原和山地大果柏生态系统。这些生态系统面临着山艾树生态系统中与野火相关的两个最突出的问题：一年生草本植物入侵和本地针叶树扩张。我们的模型通过模拟长期的野火抑制成本，明确地将生态动态、随机野火、不确定的燃料处理成功率和生态阈值纳入其中。我们的研究结果表明，基于野火抑制成本的节约，只有当这两个生态系统具有相对较好的生态健康状况时，燃料处理才具有经济效益。我们还研究了较短的野火回归间隔、提高的处理成功率以及生态状态之间阈值位置的不确定性如何影响燃料处理的经济效益。
