Harwell Mark A, Gentile John H, Parker Keith R, Murphy Stephen M, Day Robert H, Bence A Edward, Neff Jerry M, Wiens John A
Harwell Gentile & Associates, LC, Port Orange, FL, USA.
Hum Ecol Risk Assess. 2012 Mar;18(2):261-328. doi: 10.1080/10807039.2012.650582. Epub 2012 Mar 16.
Harlequin Ducks ( were adversely affected by the oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (, a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001-2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400-4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual oil two decades later are essentially non-existent.
丑鸭受到阿拉斯加威廉王子湾（PWS）石油泄漏（埃克森瓦尔迪兹石油泄漏事故，EVOS）的不利影响，一些人认为这种影响在二十年后仍在持续。我们进行了一项生态风险评估，定量评估PWS海鸭是否仍然面临残留石油中多环芳烃（PAHs）的风险。针对最初受油污影响的地点和未受油污影响的参考地点，确定了多环芳烃暴露的潜在途径。一些潜在途径看似不合理（例如，海鸭挖掘地下油污残留物），而其他途径则需要进行量化。我们利用2001 - 2008年期间在PWS收集的猎物物种、沉积物和海水中多环芳烃浓度的数据，建立了一个基于个体的随机模型，预测海鸭的同化剂量。我们模拟了八个年龄/性别类别中每类500,000只个体的暴露情况，捕捉了生活在PWS的海鸭种群中的变异性。最大暴露个体所接受的剂量比使用美国环境保护局（USEPA）海鸭协议确定的慢性毒性参考值低约400 - 4,000倍。这些暴露水平非常低，以至于即使在一个比PWS实际存在数量大几个数量级的模拟种群中，也不太可能产生个体层面的影响。我们得出结论，二十年后残留石油对PWS海鸭的毒理学风险基本不存在。
