Jin X
Shandong Province Hygienic and Anti-Epidemic Station, Jinan.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 1990 Apr;11(2):108-12.
There was a tendency that the mortality of malignant tumours increased with age. In order to explore the law of this tendency, the data of malignant tumours mortality from disease monitoring points in Shandong Province were mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality was established by using the exponential curve, y = 10a + bx. The model was also tested and verified by using national data, to observe the universal significance of the model. The model gave a theoretical account of the law of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality from a population, and provided an initial method to predict malignant tumours mortality. The increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality in various age groups when age increased one year could be calculated by using the differential equation from the exponential curve equation, y = 10a + bx. Further, "an increment multiple constant" of the increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality could be calculated. The constant could be used as an Index for comparison in risk degree and age distribution law of malignant tumours mortality among various age groups and the same age group in different periods, and provided leads for further research of the causes of malignant tumours.
恶性肿瘤的死亡率有随年龄增长而上升的趋势。为探究这种趋势的规律，对山东省疾病监测点的恶性肿瘤死亡率数据进行数学拟合，利用指数曲线(y = 10a + bx)建立了恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型。还利用全国数据对该模型进行了检验和验证，以观察模型的普遍意义。该模型从人群角度对恶性肿瘤死亡率的年龄分布规律进行了理论阐释，并提供了预测恶性肿瘤死亡率的初步方法。利用指数曲线方程(y = 10a + bx)的微分方程可计算出各年龄组年龄每增加一岁时恶性肿瘤死亡率的增加量。进而可计算出恶性肿瘤死亡率增加量的“增加倍数常数”。该常数可作为不同年龄组及同一年龄组不同时期恶性肿瘤死亡率风险程度和年龄分布规律比较的指标，为进一步研究恶性肿瘤病因提供线索。
