Department of Psychology, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
PLoS One. 2013 May 30;8(5):e62477. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062477. Print 2013.
How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths.
Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m) ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s) experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt.
Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms.
These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.
人们对极端水流速度的感知有多准确，以及他们的感知如何影响感知到的风险？先前的研究集中在可能降低人体稳定性或平衡的水流特征上。本研究首次展示了不同速度和深度的水流对人们风险感知的影响。
通过随机的个体内 2（水深：0.45、0.90 米）×3（水流速度：0.4、0.8、1.2 米/秒）实验，我们将 76 人浸入移动的水中，并要求他们估计水速和他们感到的风险。
多层次模型显示，随着实际水流速度的增加或水深的增加，人们越来越高估水流速度。水速感知中介了实际水速与感知风险之间的直接正相关关系；水流越快，感知到的风险越大。参与者以前对激流和热带气旋的经验调节了实际感知到的水速关系的强度；因此，对于没有经历过激流或风暴较少的人来说，中介作用更强。
这些发现提供了对水流速度和风险感知的更清晰的理解，这可能有助于传达与预期洪水和热带气旋相关的风险。
