1Information Systems, Birzeit University, West Bank, Palestine.
Waste Manag Res. 2013 Oct;31(10):986-95. doi: 10.1177/0734242X13490981. Epub 2013 Jun 6.
Waste management policy makers always face the problem of how to predict the future amount and composition of medical solid waste, which, in turn, helps to determine the most appropriate treatment, recycling and disposal strategy. An accurate prediction can assist in both the planning and design of medical solid waste management systems. Insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity are the main reasons for the scarcity of medical solid waste quantities and components historical records, which are so important in long-term system planning and short-term expansion programs. This article presents a new technique, using System Dynamics modeling, to predict generated medical solid waste in a developing urban area, based on a set of limited samples from Jenin District hospitals, Palestine. The findings of the model present the trend of medical solid waste generation together with its different components and indicate that a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties when traditional statistical least-squared regression methods are unable to handle such issues.
废物管理政策制定者总是面临如何预测未来医疗固体废物的数量和组成的问题，这反过来又有助于确定最合适的处理、回收和处置策略。准确的预测可以帮助规划和设计医疗固体废物管理系统。预算不足和管理能力不足是医疗固体废物数量和成分历史记录稀缺的主要原因，这些记录对于长期系统规划和短期扩展计划非常重要。本文提出了一种新的技术，使用系统动力学建模，根据来自巴勒斯坦杰宁地区医院的一组有限样本，预测一个发展中城市地区产生的医疗固体废物。该模型的研究结果展示了医疗固体废物产生的趋势及其不同组成部分，并表明，当传统的统计最小二乘法回归方法无法处理这些问题时，一种新的预测方法可以涵盖各种可能的因果模型，并跟踪不可避免的不确定性。
