Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, MetroHealth Medical Center, affiliated with Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH.
J Orthop Trauma. 2013 Oct;27(10):543-51. doi: 10.1097/BOT.0b013e31829efda1.
The purpose was to define which clinical conditions warrant delay of definitive fixation for pelvis, femur, acetabulum, and spine fractures. A model was developed to predict the complications.
Statistical modeling based on retrospective database.
Level 1 trauma center.
A total of 1443 adults with pelvis (n = 291), acetabulum (n = 399), spine (n = 102), and/or proximal or diaphyseal femur (n = 851) fractures.
All fractures were treated surgically.
Univariate and multivariate analysis of variance assessed associations of parameters with complications. Logistic predictive models were developed with the incorporation of multiple fixed and random effect covariates. Odds ratios, F tests, and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated.
Twelve percent had pulmonary complications, with 8.2% overall developing pneumonia. The pH and base excess values were lower (P < 0.0001) and the rate of improvement was also slower (all Ps < 0.007), with pneumonia or any pulmonary complication. Similarly, lactate values were greater with pulmonary complications (all Ps < 0.02), and lactate was the most specific predictor of complications. Chest injury was the strongest independent predictor of pulmonary complication. Initial lactate was a stronger predictor of pneumonia (P = 0.0006) than initial pH (P = 0.047) or the rate of improvement of pH over the first 8 hours (P = 0.0007). An uncomplicated course was associated with the absence of chest injury (P < 0.0001) and definitive fixation within 24 (P = 0.007) or 48 hours (P = 0.005). Models were developed to predict probability of complications with various injury combinations using specific laboratory parameters measuring residual acidosis.
Acidosis on presentation is associated with complications. Correction of pH within 8 hours to >7.25 was associated with fewer pulmonary complications. Presence and severity of chest injury, number of fractures, and timing of fixation are other significant variables to include in a predictive model and algorithm development for Early Appropriate Care. The goal is to minimize complications by definitive management of major skeletal injury once the patient has been adequately resuscitated.
明确哪些临床情况需要延迟骨盆、股骨、髋臼和脊柱骨折的确定性固定。建立一个模型来预测并发症。
基于回顾性数据库的统计建模。
一级创伤中心。
共 1443 例成人骨盆(n=291)、髋臼(n=399)、脊柱(n=102)和/或股骨近端或骨干骨折(n=851)。
所有骨折均行手术治疗。
单因素和多因素方差分析评估参数与并发症的关系。建立逻辑预测模型,纳入多个固定和随机效应协变量。计算比值比、F 检验和受试者工作特征曲线。
12%的患者发生肺部并发症,其中 8.2%总体发生肺炎。pH 值和碱剩余值较低(P<0.0001),改善速度也较慢(所有 P<0.007),有或无肺部并发症时均如此。同样,乳酸值升高与肺部并发症相关(所有 P<0.02),乳酸是并发症最特异的预测指标。胸部损伤是肺部并发症的最强独立预测因素。初始乳酸水平是肺炎的更强预测指标(P=0.0006),而非初始 pH 值(P=0.047)或 pH 值在最初 8 小时内的改善率(P=0.0007)。无并发症的病程与无胸部损伤(P<0.0001)和 24 小时(P=0.007)或 48 小时内(P=0.005)确定性固定有关。使用测量残留酸中毒的特定实验室参数,建立了各种损伤组合下预测并发症概率的模型。
入院时酸中毒与并发症相关。8 小时内 pH 值纠正至>7.25 与肺部并发症减少相关。胸部损伤的存在和严重程度、骨折数量以及固定时间是纳入预测模型和制定早期恰当治疗算法的其他重要变量。目标是在患者充分复苏后,通过对主要骨骼损伤进行确定性治疗,尽量减少并发症。