Department of Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2013 Dec;33(12):2126-41. doi: 10.1111/risa.12085. Epub 2013 Jun 13.
The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.
美国能源部估计，美国需要超过 50 吉瓦的海上风力发电才能实现 20%的电力来自风能。开发商正在积极规划美国大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸的海上风电场，并且已经签署了一些海上场址的租约。这些规划中的项目位于有时会遭受飓风袭击的地区。我们提出了一种使用模拟飓风来估计海上风力发电灾害风险的方法。使用这种方法，我们可以估计同时离线的海上风力发电的比例和一个地区的累积损失。在德克萨斯州，我们研究的最脆弱地区，由于 100 年一遇的飓风破坏，可能会有 10%的海上风力发电同时离线，而在任何 10 年期间，可能会有 6%的风力发电遭到破坏。我们还估计了四个代表性地点的单个风电场的风险；我们发现风险是显著的，但低于之前发表的结果估计的风险。通过设计能够承受更高最大风速的涡轮机、确保涡轮机舱能够快速转向以跟踪风向，即使在电网断电的情况下，以及在风险较低的地区建造，海上风力涡轮机的大部分飓风风险都可以得到缓解。
