de Stavola B L, Gravelle I H, Wang D Y, Allen D S, Bulbrook R D, Fentiman I S, Hayward J L, Chaudary M C
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Epidemiology, Imperial Cancer Research Fund, Lincoln's Inn Fields, London, UK.
Int J Epidemiol. 1990 Jun;19(2):247-54. doi: 10.1093/ije/19.2.247.
A prospective study has been conducted on 4954 female volunteers from the Island of Guernsey between 1977 and 1985 to examine risk factors for breast cancer and their relationship to mammographic parenchymal patterns as assessed by Wolfe's method of grading. Up to September 1988, 69 women had developed breast cancer, 11 of whom were prevalent cases being diagnosed within six months of mammography. The remaining incident cases were diagnosed six to 126 months (median 65 months) after entry to the study. Univariate analysis showed that the distribution of Wolfe grades in the population was significantly associated with menopausal status, age, parity, adiposity, age at menarche, age at first childbirth and use of oral contraception, but not with a family history of breast cancer. Multivariate analysis of the data for these variables from either pre- and/or post-menopausal women indicated that age, parity and adiposity were significantly related to Wolfe grade pattern. Age had an opposite effect in pre- compared with postmenopausal women thus the probability of either a P2 or DY pattern increased with increasing age in premenopausal but decreased in postmenopausal women so that incidence peaked around the menopause. Other variables did not achieve significance in the multivariate analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for women with P2 or DY patterns using those with N1 or P1 grades as the reference group. The ORs were determined at two censoring times; one at five years and the other to include the most recent follow-up of this cohort. The ORs were adjusted for years of follow-up, age and adiposity and in postmenopausal women adjustment was also made for age at menarche.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
1977年至1985年间，对根西岛的4954名女性志愿者进行了一项前瞻性研究，以检查乳腺癌的危险因素及其与通过沃尔夫分级法评估的乳房X线实质模式的关系。截至1988年9月，69名女性患了乳腺癌，其中11例为现患病例，在乳房X线检查后6个月内被诊断出来。其余新发病例在进入研究后6至126个月（中位数65个月）被诊断出来。单因素分析表明，人群中沃尔夫分级的分布与绝经状态、年龄、产次、肥胖、初潮年龄、首次生育年龄和口服避孕药的使用显著相关，但与乳腺癌家族史无关。对绝经前和/或绝经后女性这些变量的数据进行多因素分析表明，年龄、产次和肥胖与沃尔夫分级模式显著相关。与绝经后女性相比，年龄在绝经前有相反的影响，因此在绝经前女性中，P2或DY模式的概率随年龄增加而增加，而在绝经后女性中则降低，因此发病率在绝经前后达到峰值。其他变量在多因素分析中未达到显著水平。以N1或P1级女性为参照组，计算了P2或DY模式女性的比值比（OR）。在两个审查时间确定OR；一个在五年时，另一个包括该队列的最新随访。OR针对随访年限、年龄和肥胖进行了调整，在绝经后女性中还对初潮年龄进行了调整。（摘要截断于250字）
