Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), University of Utrecht , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Aug 6;47(15):8523-31. doi: 10.1021/es400920a. Epub 2013 Jul 12.
Land use regression (LUR) models are often used to predict long-term average concentrations of air pollutants. Little is known how well LUR models predict personal exposure. In this study, the agreement of LUR models with measured personal exposure was assessed. The measured components were particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), soot (reflectance of PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). In Helsinki, Utrecht, and Barcelona, 15 volunteers (from semiurban, urban background, and traffic sites) followed prescribed time activity patterns. Per participant, six 96 h outdoor, indoor, and personal measurements spread over three seasons were conducted. Soot LUR models were significantly correlated with measured average outdoor and personal soot concentrations. Soot LUR models explained 39%, 44%, and 20% of personal exposure variability (R(2)) in Helsinki, Utrecht, and Barcelona. NO2 LUR models significantly predicted outdoor concentrations and personal exposure in Utrecht and Helsinki, whereas NOx and PM2.5 LUR models did not predict personal exposure. PM2.5, NO2, and NOx models were correlated with personal soot, the component least affected by indoor sources. LUR modeled and measured outdoor, indoor, and personal concentrations were highly correlated for all pollutants when data from the three cities were combined. This study supports the use of intraurban LUR models for especially soot in air pollution epidemiology.
土地利用回归(LUR)模型常用于预测空气污染物的长期平均浓度。然而,对于 LUR 模型预测个人暴露的能力,我们知之甚少。本研究旨在评估 LUR 模型与实测个人暴露之间的一致性。所测量的成分包括直径小于 2.5μm 的颗粒物(PM2.5)、黑碳(PM2.5 的反射率)、氮氧化物(NOx)和二氧化氮(NO2)。在赫尔辛基、乌得勒支和巴塞罗那,15 名志愿者(来自半城市、城市背景和交通站点)遵循规定的时间活动模式。每个参与者进行了六次为期 96 小时的户外、室内和个人测量,跨越三个季节。黑碳 LUR 模型与实测的平均户外和个人黑碳浓度显著相关。黑碳 LUR 模型分别解释了赫尔辛基、乌得勒支和巴塞罗那个人暴露变异的 39%、44%和 20%(R²)。NO2 LUR 模型在乌得勒支和赫尔辛基显著预测了户外浓度和个人暴露,而 NOx 和 PM2.5 LUR 模型则不能预测个人暴露。PM2.5、NO2 和 NOx 模型与个人黑碳呈正相关,而个人黑碳受室内源影响最小。当将三个城市的数据合并时,LUR 模型模拟的和实测的户外、室内和个人浓度与所有污染物均高度相关。本研究支持在城市内空气污染流行病学中使用 LUR 模型,特别是针对黑碳。