The Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, 02540-1644, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Nov;19(11):3449-62. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12304. Epub 2013 Sep 11.
Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P < 0.05) with Ts across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi-decadal (i.e., low-frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid-20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations.
俄罗斯的北方(泰加)生物群落可能会因 21 世纪气候变化而急剧收缩并向北迁移,但很少有研究探讨过沿北方边缘地区植物对气候变异性的反应。我们利用卫星衍生的归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)、树木年轮宽度测量和气候数据,对西伯利亚东北部科雷马河流域(657000 平方公里)的冻原灌丛和 Cajander 落叶松林(Larix cajanderi Mayr.)进行了气候动态、植物生长趋势以及生长-气候关系的量化研究。1938 年至 2009 年间,夏季平均气温(Ts)上升了 1.0°C,尽管生长年降水或气候湿润指数(CMIgy)没有趋势(P>0.05)。1982 年至 2010 年间,流域 20%的地区的夏季平均 NDVI(NDVIs)显著增加,主要在寒冷的灌木主导地区。NDVIs 与流域 56%的地区(r=0.52±0.09,均值±SD)的 Ts 呈正相关(P<0.05),主要在寒冷地区,与流域 9%的地区(r=0.45±0.06)的 CMIgy 呈正相关,主要在温暖地区。来自九个地点的落叶松年轮测量结果表明,1938 年至 2007 年间,生长的年际(即高频)变化与 6 月温度(r=0.40)和前一个夏季 CMI(r=0.40)呈正相关。20 世纪中叶以后,年基础面积增量(BAI)出现了无法解释的数十年(即低频)下降,但在 NDVI 记录中,平均 BAI 没有趋势(P>0.05),与 NDVIs 显著相关(r=0.44,P<0.05,1982-2007)。卫星和树木年轮分析都表明,植物生长受到低温和有限水分供应的限制,此外,变暖增强了生长。未来气候变化对俄罗斯北极地区林线附近森林的影响可能受到温度和湿度变化的影响,这意味着在该地区预测未来森林分布和生产力时,应该考虑到能量和水分限制的相互作用。