Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2013 Jun 24;8(6):e67226. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0067226. Print 2013.
Indirect estimation methodologies of the total fertility rate (TFR) have a long history within demography and have provided important techniques applied demographers can use when data is sparse or lacking. However new methodologies for approximating the total fertility rate have not been proposed in nearly 30 years. This study presents a novel method for indirectly approximating the total fertility rate using an algebraic rearrangement of the general fertility rate (GFR) through the known relationship between GFR and TFR. It then compares the proposed method to the well-known Bogue-Palmore method. These methods are compared in 196 countries and include overall errors as well as characteristics of the countries that contribute to fertility behavior. Additionally, these methods were compared geographically to find any geographical patterns. We find this novel method is not only simpler than the Bogue-Palmore method, requiring fewer data inputs, but also has reduced algebraic and absolute errors when compared with the Bogue-Palmore method and specifically outperforms the Bogue-Palmore method in developing countries. We find that our novel method may be useful estimation procedure for demographers.
间接估计总和生育率 (TFR) 的方法在人口学中有着悠久的历史，为数据稀缺或缺乏时提供了应用人口学家可以使用的重要技术。然而，近 30 年来，尚未提出新的方法来近似总和生育率。本研究提出了一种新的方法，通过已知的总和生育率 (TFR) 和一般生育率 (GFR) 之间的关系，通过对一般生育率 (GFR) 的代数重新排列来间接近似总和生育率。然后，将提出的方法与著名的 Bogue-Palmore 方法进行比较。在 196 个国家和地区比较了这些方法，包括总体误差以及导致生育行为的国家特征。此外，还对这些方法进行了地理比较，以发现任何地理模式。我们发现这种新方法不仅比 Bogue-Palmore 方法更简单，所需数据输入更少，而且与 Bogue-Palmore 方法相比，代数和绝对误差也更小，特别是在发展中国家，其表现优于 Bogue-Palmore 方法。我们发现，我们的新方法可能是人口学家有用的估计程序。
