O'Hare D
Department of Psychology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Aviat Space Environ Med. 1990 Jul;61(7):599-603.
A sample of licensed pilots completed the Aeronautical Risk Judgment Questionnaire (ARJQ) which was developed to obtain data on pilots' perceptions of their abilities, willingness to take risks, hazard awareness, and judgments of the risks of general aviation. A subset of these subjects was tested on a computerised test of flight decision-making involving a proposed VFR flight in marginal weather conditions. Results from the ARJQ indicate relatively low levels of risk and hazard awareness combined with a generally optimistic self-appraisal of abilities by this sample of general aviation pilots. Younger subjects (under 30) were found to rate the likelihood of being involved in an accident more highly than did older pilots. Experienced pilots obtained higher scores on a measure of "personal invulnerability" from factors commonly associated with accidents. This does not appear to be due simply to overconfidence in their abilities, since it was the younger and less experienced pilots who held the most unrealistically optimistic appraisals of their ability. Pilots who proceeded with the computerised flight rate themselves as having a greater willingness to take risks, and were likely to be younger and have higher total hours than those who rejected the flight. They were also found to have significantly higher scores on the measure of "personal invulnerability." The results are discussed in relation to previous epidemiological findings and possible safety prevention strategies.
一组有执照的飞行员完成了航空风险判断问卷(ARJQ),该问卷旨在获取有关飞行员对自身能力的认知、冒险意愿、危险意识以及对通用航空风险判断的数据。这些受试者中的一部分接受了一项计算机化的飞行决策测试,测试内容涉及在边缘天气条件下拟进行的一次目视飞行规则(VFR)飞行。航空风险判断问卷的结果表明,该样本中的通用航空飞行员风险和危险意识水平相对较低,同时对自身能力普遍进行了乐观的自我评估。研究发现,年轻受试者(30岁以下)比年长飞行员更有可能认为自己会卷入事故。经验丰富的飞行员在一项衡量“个人无懈可击性”的指标上得分更高,该指标与事故的常见因素相关。这似乎并非仅仅是由于他们对自身能力过度自信,因为正是年轻且经验不足的飞行员对自己的能力持有最不切实际的乐观评估。选择进行计算机化飞行的飞行员认为自己有更大的冒险意愿,而且他们可能比拒绝飞行的飞行员更年轻,飞行总时长也更多。研究还发现,他们在“个人无懈可击性”指标上的得分显著更高。本文结合先前的流行病学研究结果和可能的安全预防策略对这些结果进行了讨论。