Culqui Dante R, Díaz Julio, Simón Fernando, Linares Cristina
Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, España.
Rev Esp Salud Publica. 2013 May-Jun;87(3):277-82. doi: 10.4321/S1135-57272013000300007.
After the heat wave of 2003, many European countries have implemented plans for monitoring and controlling the effects of heat waves (PMSEHW) to mitigate the effects of heat on health and few countries have assessed their impact. The aim of study was to evaluate the PMSEHW impact in the mortality attributed to heat.
To evaluate the mortality attributed to heat during the period 1990-2009, we conducted a time series analysis using ARIMA models with exogenous variables (temperature). We examined the impact of high temperatures on mortality before and after the year 2004, year of the implementation of PVCEOC.
The impact attributable to the heat wave in 2003 was 22.39% increase in mortality per degree ºC, with an intensity of 8.2 ºC. Some heat waves prior to 2003 were higher in intensity, so in the years 1991, 1992 and 1995 the intensity of heat waves was 25.9 ºC, 8.3 ºC and 12.5 ºC respectively. Heat waves subsequent to 2003 had lower intensity, and the 2005, with a heat wave intensity of 4.5 ºC greater impact was observed, which was 45.71% increase in mortality per degree ºC.
Finally, we can not say, that, in the city of Madrid, the implementation of PVEOC results in a decrease of the mortality attributable to high temperatures.
2003年热浪过后，许多欧洲国家实施了热浪影响监测与控制计划（PMSEHW）以减轻高温对健康的影响，且几乎没有国家评估过其影响。本研究的目的是评估PMSEHW对高温所致死亡率的影响。
为评估1990 - 2009年期间高温所致的死亡率，我们使用带外生变量（温度）的ARIMA模型进行了时间序列分析。我们研究了2004年（实施PVCEOC的年份）前后高温对死亡率的影响。
2003年热浪所致的影响为每摄氏度死亡率增加22.39%，热浪强度为8.2摄氏度。2003年之前的一些热浪强度更高，1991年、1992年和1995年热浪强度分别为25.9摄氏度、8.3摄氏度和12.5摄氏度。2003年之后的热浪强度较低，2005年观察到热浪强度为4.5摄氏度时影响更大，即每摄氏度死亡率增加45.71%。
最后，我们不能说在马德里市实施PVEOC会导致高温所致死亡率下降。
