Factors affecting the unmet demand for pharmacists: state-level analysis.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between state-level Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) data and market factors reflecting both supply and demand: unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, community pharmacy prescription growth rates, and Medicare Part D.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional time series analysis using state-level data.

SETTING

U.S. labor market for pharmacists, from 2001 to 2010.

INTERVENTION

Model ADI data for states (dependent variable) against five independent variables: previous year ADI, unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth rates, and Medicare Part D.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Significance and predictive ability of the model, sign of the variables studied, and R2.

RESULTS

In the two-way (state and time) fixed-effects model, all variables were significant and R2 was 0.79. Contributions to state-level ADIs were, in rank order, previous year ADI, unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, and prescription growth rates. The model predicted 2010 ADI values for 44 of 51 states within ±10%. The model depicts the independent contributions of each variable for the short (∼1 year) and longer term. Although the nature of ADI data precludes quantitative predictions about the pharmacist job market, the model results show marketplace directions (up or down) and comparative impacts.

CONCLUSION

The model demonstrated that unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth rates, and Medicare Part D contributed significantly to state-level ADIs between 2001 and 2010. The relationships uncovered should be monitored and reexamined as new data emerge in order to anticipate the directions of the pharmacist job market.