Manpower needs in academic emergency medicine.

One of the value statements of the American College of Emergency Physicians states that, "Quality Emergency Medicine is best practiced by qualified, credentialed emergency physicians." To address this value ACEP has established the following goal: "The number of board-certified physicians will be sufficient to meet the manpower needs of the public." It is the position of ACEP that there is currently a severe shortage of appropriately trained and certified emergency physicians and, moreover, that the shortage will continue well into the next century. We discuss how ACEP arrived at this position and the role of academic emergency medicine in addressing this shortage. For many years, there has been a public debate as to whether there is a physician shortage or surplus. The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Commission report of 1980 estimated that there would be 630,000 US physicians by 1990, with a surplus of 70,000. This report also identified emergency medicine as a shortage specialty, indicating there would be a need for 14,000 emergency physicians in 1990, with a supply of only 8,000. Schwartz included such factors as increased provision of administrative and research activity by physicians and concluded that there would be a shortage of 7,000 physicians by the year 2,000.