A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification.