A clinical predictive score for mood disorder risk in low-income primary care settings.

BACKGROUND

Despite availability of validated screening tests for mood disorders, busy general practitioners (GPs) often lack the time to use them routinely. This study aimed to develop a simplified clinical predictive score to help screen for presence of current mood disorder in low-income primary care settings.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, 197 patients seen at 10 primary care centers in Santiago, Chile completed self-administered screening tools for mood disorders: the Patient Health questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ). To determine participants' current-point mood disorder status, trained clinicians applied a gold-standard diagnostic interview (SCID-I). A simplified clinical predictive model (CM) was developed based on clinical features and selected questions from the screening tools. Using CM, a clinical predictive score (PS) was developed. Full PHQ-9 and GP assessment were compared with PS.

RESULTS

Using multivariate logistic regression, clinical and demographic variables predictive of current mood disorder were identified for a simplified 8-point predictive score (PS). PS had better discrimination than GP assessment (auROC-statistic=0.80 [95% CI 0.72, 0.85] vs. 0.58 [95% CI 0.52, 0.62] p-value <0.0001), but not as good as the full PHQ-9 (0.89 [95% CI 0.85, 0.93], p-value=0.03). Compared with GP assessment, PS increased sensitivity by 50% at a fixed specificity of 90%. Administered in a typical primary care clinical population, it correctly predicted almost 80% of cases.

LIMITATIONS

Further research must verify external validity of the PS.

CONCLUSION

An easily administered clinical predictive score determined, with reasonable accuracy, the current risk of mood disorders in low-income primary care settings.