Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8568, Japan.
Nature. 2013 Aug 8;500(7461):190-3. doi: 10.1038/nature12374.
The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.
在过去的一百万年里,北半球冰盖的增减主要受约 10 万年的周期性和锯齿模式(逐渐增长和快速终止)的控制。米兰科维奇理论提出,高北纬地区的夏季太阳辐射驱动着冰川周期,统计测试表明,冰川周期确实与偏心率、倾斜度和岁差周期有关。然而,太阳辐射本身并不能解释强烈的 10 万年周期,这表明内部气候反馈也可能在起作用。早期的概念模型表明,冰川终止与北半球“过剩冰”的积累有关,但支持 10 万年周期的物理机制仍不清楚。在这里,我们使用综合气候和冰盖模型表明,太阳辐射和气候、冰盖和岩石圈-软流圈系统之间的内部反馈解释了 10 万年的周期性。冰盖对夏季太阳辐射的平衡状态响应表现出滞后性,滞后环的形状和位置在确定冰川周期的周期性方面起着关键作用。北美冰盖的滞后环使得在冰盖开始形成后,通过几个岁差周期,其质量平衡仍然主要为正,其幅度朝着偏心率最小值减小。冰盖生长和向低纬度扩展得越大,使质量平衡为负所需的太阳辐射就越小。因此,一旦建立了一个大型冰盖,中等程度的太阳辐射增加就足以触发负质量平衡,导致冰盖在几千年内几乎完全退缩。这种快速退缩主要由由于延迟的均衡回弹导致的表面高程降低引起的快速消融控制,这是岩石圈-软流圈的响应。二氧化碳参与了,但不是决定性的,在 10 万年冰川周期的演化中。