Higgins E Tory, Franks Becca, Pavarini Dana, Sehnert Steen, Manley Katie
Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
J Econ Psychol. 2013 Oct;38:4-15. doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2012.03.005.
Our research tested two predictions regarding how likelihood can have motivational effects as a function of how a probability is . We predicted that describing the probability of a event that could be either A or B using the language of high likelihood ("80% A") rather than low likelihood ("20% B"), i.e., high rather than low likelihood, would make a activity more real and engaging, as long as the future event had properties relevant to the present activity. We also predicted that strengthening engagement from the high (. low) expressed likelihood of a future event would intensify the value of present positive and negative objects (in opposite directions). Both predictions were supported. There was also evidence that this intensification effect from expressed likelihood was independent of the actual probability or valence of the future event. What mattered was whether high versus low likelihood language was used to describe the future event.
我们的研究检验了关于可能性如何作为概率函数产生动机效应的两个预测。我们预测,使用高可能性语言(“80%A”)而非低可能性语言(“20%B”)来描述可能是A或B的事件的概率,即高而非低可能性,会使一项活动更真实且更具吸引力,只要未来事件具有与当前活动相关的属性。我们还预测,增强未来事件高(低)表达可能性所带来的参与度会强化当前正负对象的价值(方向相反)。这两个预测均得到了支持。还有证据表明,这种由表达可能性产生的强化效应与未来事件的实际概率或效价无关。关键在于是否使用高可能性与低可能性语言来描述未来事件。