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世界真的躲过了人口炸弹吗?(评《世界如何躲过人口炸弹:非凡人口历史 50 年的经验教训》)

Has the world really survived the population bomb? (Commentary on "how the world survived the population bomb: lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history").

机构信息

Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, E4148, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD, USA, 21205,

出版信息

Demography. 2013 Dec;50(6):2173-81. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0236-y.

Abstract

In his PAA presidential address and corresponding article in Demography, David Lam (Demography 48:1231-1262, 2011) documented the extraordinary progress of humankind-vis-à-vis poverty alleviation, increased schooling, and reductions in mortality and fertility-since 1960 and noted that he expects further improvements by 2050. However, although Lam briefly covered the problems of global warming and pollution, he did not address several other major environmental problems that are closely related to the rapid human population growth in recent decades and to the progress he described. This commentary highlights some of these problems to provide a more balanced perspective on the situation of the world. Specifically, humans currently are using resources at an unsustainable level. Groundwater depletion and overuse of river water are major problems on multiple continents. Fossil fuel resources and several minerals are being depleted. Other major problems include deforestation, with the annual forest clearing globally estimated to be an area the size of New York State; and species extinction, with rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates. Principles of ecological economics are presented that allow an integration of ecology and economic development and better potential for preservation of the world for future generations.

摘要

在他的 PAA 主席演讲和在《人口学》上的相应文章中,David Lam(《人口学》48:1231-1262,2011)记录了自 1960 年以来人类在减贫、增加教育、降低死亡率和生育率方面的非凡进步,并预计到 2050 年还会有进一步的改善。然而,尽管 Lam 简要地提到了全球变暖与污染的问题,但他没有涉及到其他几个与近几十年来人类人口快速增长以及他所描述的进步密切相关的重大环境问题。本评论突出了其中的一些问题,以提供一个更平衡的视角来看待世界的状况。具体而言,人类目前正在以不可持续的水平消耗资源。地下水枯竭和过度使用河水是多个大陆的主要问题。化石燃料资源和几种矿物质正在被消耗殆尽。其他主要问题包括森林砍伐,全球每年砍伐的森林估计有纽约州那么大;以及物种灭绝,其速度估计是背景速度的 100 到 1000 倍。本文提出了生态经济学的原则,这些原则允许生态学和经济发展的整合,并为子孙后代更好地保护世界提供了潜力。

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