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论完成“不可能之事”:推断一种假定的因果关系不存在。

On doing the "impossible": inferring that a putative causal relationship does not exist.

作者信息

Hall W, Einfeld S

机构信息

National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Kensington.

出版信息

Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 1990 Jun;24(2):217-26. doi: 10.3109/00048679009077687.

Abstract

A simple heuristic is proposed for drawing a warranted inference that a causal relationship does not exist between two events. It is illustrated by a study of the putative indirect causal relationship between Autistic Disorder and the Fragile X syndrome. This study was designed to ensure that a failure to find such a relationship provided good reasons for concluding that it was unlikely there was a relationship between Autistic Disorder and the Fragile X syndrome.

摘要

本文提出一种简单的启发式方法,用于得出关于两个事件之间不存在因果关系的合理推断。通过对自闭症谱系障碍与脆性X综合征之间假定的间接因果关系的研究对此进行了说明。本研究旨在确保未能发现这种关系能为得出自闭症谱系障碍与脆性X综合征之间不太可能存在关系的结论提供充分理由。

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