Hao Zhenchun, Ju Qin, Jiang Weijuan, Zhu Changjun
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
ScientificWorldJournal. 2013 Jul 22;2013:129793. doi: 10.1155/2013/129793. eCollection 2013.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least.
政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）给出了22个全球气候模型（GCMs）。在本文中，我们通过与1961年至1900年的地面观测数据对比，评估了22个全球气候模型再现青藏高原气温和降水的能力。结果表明，所有全球气候模型均低估了地表气温，且大多数模型高估了青藏高原大部分地区的降水量。只有少数模型（降水和气温各有5个模型）在年气温和降水变化方面与观测结果大致相符。相比之下，GFCM21和CGMR能够更好地再现青藏高原观测到的年气温和降水变率。尽管全球气候模型预测的情景差异很大，但所有模型均一致预测青藏高原大部分地区在未来90年气温和降水呈上升趋势。结果表明，在不同情景下的所有三个时期，气温和降水都将上升，其中情景A1上升最多，情景A1B上升最少。
