Hirschman C, Guest P
Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195.
Demography. 1990 Aug;27(3):369-96.
Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies--Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women's status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women's status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.
利用1970年和1980年人口普查的微观数据，我们为四个东南亚社会——印度尼西亚、马来西亚半岛、菲律宾和泰国——设定并检验了生育决定的多层次模型。社会背景由代表妇女地位、儿童角色和婴儿死亡率的省级特征来衡量。这些背景变量被假定对当前生育率有直接和间接（通过个人社会经济特征）的影响。背景变量在生育率的个体差异中占了适度但显著的份额，并且在生育率的地区间总差异中占了约一半。妇女地位背景变量，特别是现代部门就业，对降低生育率有最大且最一致的影响。基于其他背景变量的结果为最初的假设提供了混合支持。
