State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, PR China.
PLoS One. 2013 Aug 27;8(8):e70574. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0070574. eCollection 2013.
Glaciers' runoff in the Qilian Mountains serves as a critical water resource in the northern sections of the Gansu province, the northeastern sections of the Qinghai province, and the northeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau. Changes in the glacial area and volume around the highest peak of the Qilian Mountains, i.e., Tuanjiefeng Peak, were estimated using multi-temporal remote-sensing images and digital elevation models, and all possible sources of uncertainty were considered in detail. The total glacier area decreased by 16.1±6.34 km(2) (9.9±3.9%) during 1966 to 2010. The average annual glacier shrinkage was -0.15% a(-1) from 1966 to 1995, -0.61% a(-1) from 1995 to 2000, -0.20% a(-1) from 2000 to 2006, and -0.45% a(-1) from 2006 to 2010. A comparison of glacier surface elevations using digital elevation models derived from topographic maps in 1966 and from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission in 1999 suggests that 65% of the grid cells has decreased, thereby indicating that the glacier thickness has declined. The average change in glacier thickness was -7.3±1.5 m (-0.21±0.04 m·a(-1)) from 1966 to 1999. Glaciers with northeastern aspects thinned by 8.3±1.4 m from 1966 to 1999, i.e., almost twice as much as those with southwestern aspects (4.3±1.3 m). The ice volume decreased by 11.72±2.38×10(8) m(3) from 1966 to 1999, which was about 17.4% more than the value calculated from the statistical relationship between glacier area and volume. The relationship between glacier area change and elevation zone indicates that glacier change is not only dominated by climate change but also affected by glacier dynamics, which are related to local topography. The varied response of a single glacier to climate change indicates that the glacier area change scheme used in some models must be improved.
祁连山脉的冰川融水是甘肃省北部、青海省东北部和青藏高原东北缘的重要水资源。利用多时相遥感影像和数字高程模型估算了祁连山脉最高峰团结峰周围的冰川面积和体积的变化，并详细考虑了所有可能的不确定性来源。1966 年至 2010 年期间，总冰川面积减少了 16.1±6.34km²（9.9±3.9%）。1966 年至 1995 年期间，平均每年冰川退缩率为-0.15%a⁻¹，1995 年至 2000 年期间为-0.61%a⁻¹，2000 年至 2006 年期间为-0.20%a⁻¹，2006 年至 2010 年期间为-0.45%a⁻¹。利用地形图图 1966 年和航天飞机雷达地形任务图 1999 年得到的数字高程模型对冰川表面高程进行比较表明，65%的网格单元已经减少，这表明冰川厚度已经下降。1966 年至 1999 年期间，冰川平均厚度变化为-7.3±1.5m（-0.21±0.04m·a⁻¹）。1966 年至 1999 年期间，东北向冰川减薄了 8.3±1.4m，几乎是西南向冰川的两倍（4.3±1.3m）。1966 年至 1999 年期间，冰量减少了 11.72±2.38×10⁸m³，比根据冰川面积与体积的统计关系计算出的数值增加了约 17.4%。冰川变化与高程带之间的关系表明，冰川变化不仅受气候变化控制，还受与当地地形有关的冰川动力学影响。单个冰川对气候变化的不同响应表明，一些模型中使用的冰川面积变化方案必须改进。
