Boston University School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Am J Ind Med. 2014 Oct;57(10):1090-9. doi: 10.1002/ajim.22247. Epub 2013 Sep 10.
In recent years, capture-recapture methods have been applied to state Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII) and workers' compensation data, but uncertainties arise because of population differences between the two sources, likely source dependence, and concerns about the accuracy of case linkage.
We linked SOII and workers' compensation records for California and used capture-recapture methods to estimate the proportion of injuries and illnesses involving at least 4 days away from work captured by each source. We then did a sensitivity analysis.
Assuming source independence, estimates of the proportion of injuries and illnesses involving at least 4 days away from work captured by the SOII varied from 42.4% to 49.0%, while workers' compensation estimates were between 76.9% and 77.6%. Re-estimating SOII capture rates assuming source dependence (OR = 3) reduced capture estimates substantially.
Estimated capture rates remained low after changing several of the underlying assumptions. Positive source dependence had the greatest impact.
近年来，捕获-再捕获方法已被应用于州职业伤害和疾病调查（SOII）和工人赔偿数据，但由于两个来源的人口差异、可能的来源依赖性以及对病例关联准确性的担忧，出现了不确定性。
我们将加利福尼亚州的 SOII 和工人赔偿记录进行了链接，并使用捕获-再捕获方法来估计每个来源所捕获的至少有 4 天旷工的伤害和疾病的比例。然后我们进行了敏感性分析。
假设来源独立，SOII 捕获的至少有 4 天旷工的伤害和疾病的比例估计值在 42.4%至 49.0%之间，而工人赔偿的估计值在 76.9%至 77.6%之间。假设来源依赖性（OR = 3）重新估计 SOII 捕获率会大大降低捕获估计值。
在改变了几个基本假设后，估计的捕获率仍然很低。阳性来源依赖性的影响最大。
