Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Risk Anal. 2014 Mar;34(3):401-15. doi: 10.1111/risa.12113. Epub 2013 Sep 13.
Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics.
流感大流行是一种严重的灾害，可能会严重扰乱劳动力和相关经济部门。本文考察了流感大流行对相互依存的经济部门中劳动力供应的影响。我们引入了一个基于动态投入产出模型的仿真模型，以捕捉大流行后果在国家首都地区（NCR）的传播。本文的分析基于 2009 年 H1N1 大流行的数据。使用了两个指标来评估流感大流行对经济部门的影响：（i）不可操作性，它衡量部门计划产出与实际产出之间的百分比差距；（ii）经济损失，它量化了降级产出的相关货币价值。不可操作性和经济损失指标生成了两个不同的关键经济部门排名。结果表明，就不可操作性而言，大多数关键部门都与医院和医疗保健提供者有关。另一方面，就经济损失而言，排名靠前的大多数部门都是 NCR 中具有重大总生产产出的部门，例如联邦政府机构。因此，与潜在缓解和恢复策略相关的政策建议应考虑到不可操作性和经济损失指标之间的平衡。
